Update – 317 pm

…PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL ALABAMA…

Current radar shows the intense supercell in Cherokee County, a tornado-warned storm approaching Florence/MSL, and a tornadic storm about to move into Sumter County. Plus, it shows a lot of non-severe rain and storms over northeast AL. This is keeping the warm, unstable air back in south and west Alabama.

An area of concern is developing in NW Alabama as temperatures are a bit warmer, the widespread rain is moving out, and the storms are starting to look more cellular. Satellite shows there may be a little sunshine in that area over the next 2 hours.

Because the surface low moved farther east than expected, and is currently in northeast Arkansas, the highest wind shear so far has remained to the east, over Alabama, while the most unstable air has been over Mississippi where it is warmer.

As the upper trough, surface low, and 850 mb jet continues to lift northward, wind shear may increase a bit in NW Alabama and some of the heavy rain may continue to thin out north of I-59 and west of I-65. If so, some of the storms in NE MS/NW AL could become tornadic like the one near MSL has.

Eventually, this evening, the storms will form into a line and move on through HSV and BHM around 10-11 pm. There have been numerous reports of damage and injuries with the long-track supercell that hasd moved from SW AL through BHM suburbs to Anniston area.

Dr. Tim Coleman

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