USAF C-130 planes found flight level winds sufficient for the tropical depression in the Gulf to be upgraded to Tropical Storm Barry, with sustained winds near 40 mph. The center of Barry, is located south of Pascagoula, MS, and most of the strong storms are to the south of the center. This, along with wind shear and some dry air coming in from Texas, are not conducive for rapid intensification. However, Barry is over warm water in the shallow part of the northern Gulf, and the National Hurricane Center expects Barry to become a minimal hurricane by landfall sometime on Friday or Saturday in Louisiana.
The computer models are all over the place, and the center of the storm is still disorganized and, to me, unimpressive. But, my PhD is not in hurricanes like those guys, so the chance of it becoming a hurricane is still there. It looks possible that it could turn north a little earlier and come into Gulfport, Mississippi then move slowly through Mississippi as a tropical depression this weekend, but we’ll know more about the track once it develops a little more out in the Gulf.
The weather along most of the beaches from Mobile to Panama City will be OK the next few days. There will be more scattered storms than normal, but still occasional sunshine and warm temperatures. And no threat of tropical storm winds or storm surge. However, there will be rough waves and rip currents, and the water itself is closed to the public for now. Have to look at it from the beach or balcony.
The big threat to Alabama is from heavy rain over the next few days, especially Sunday through Wednesday of next week. Assuming the track stays further west near the Mississippi River, we should only see an increase in afternoon storms around here and 1-3″ of rain over the next few days. But, if it turns north earlier and comes up through eastern Mississippi, we could see a flooding threat, with 3-5″ of rain, more in west Alabama.
Another update on Barry and possible effects on the weather here in central Alabama, coming up on Saturday.
Dr. Tim Coleman